Yes, you read that headline right. No clickbait happening here.

But before we get into the numbers, I just wanted to start this post and say Thank You! Thank you for taking the time to visit these posts each month. I truly appreciate your time.

Also, since it’s the end of the year, I just wanted to wish you, your families, and all those you hold close a very happy holiday and if you are celebrating, a very Merry Christmas!

Now let’s get to these numbers.

ABSORPTION RATES FOR CALGARY – ALL RESIDENTIAL SEGMENTS

This month, as the headline mentioned, we saw a massive decline in sales activity of 17%. This change has contributed to our Absorption Rate (ABS Rate) to drop below 60% to 57%.

If you recall from previous posts, anything between 40-60% is a balanced market. Below 40% is considered a buyer’s market, and above 60% is considered a seller’s market.

There is also one other side of the coin contributing to the decline in activity.

The number of listings available.

In November, the number of listings available to the market on the MLS declined by 7%. Ideally, this decline would make listings scarcer to the market and drive-up pricing. However, when the demand is shrinking faster than listings, we see a continued slowing of the market.

November’s ABS Rate of 57% marks the third straight month of declines in activity in our market.

But this story is one we have seen before but with a little twist!

In 2022 we saw this same decline from highs that were only superseded this year. The highest point in 2022 for our ABS Rate was 88%, while in May of this year we hit 91%. What came right after that high in 2022 was 4 major declines in activity as we worked through the summer months.

The same has now happened twice this year where we saw two declines after our high of 91% in May and a second peak occurring in August.

But even with this volatility in the market throughout the year, as you can see from the chart above, we seem to converge to a balanced market by the end of the year for the past three years.

And this is what we like to call the seasonality of the market.

The winter months slow everything down in Calgary and appetites for spending on homes now shift to other items like the holidays, etc. Also, most sellers are not open to having their homes for sale during the holidays to stop any interruptions with time with their families.

This is understandable. But if you are thinking of selling in the new year, contact me or shoot me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca and let's chat now, I can show you why you might want to reconsider December rather than March.  

My point with going into all this is we are not out of the hot market yet. If anything, November and December months in previous years have shown us that that lull for the holidays dissipates once the holidays are done.

With rates already on the decline (contact me again to learn more or email me at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca) and the forecasts of the prime rate dropping in April or May of next year, we can only expect the market to pick up.

I saw this with another set of stats I’d like to share below.

MEDIAN PRICES BY SEGMENT – CALGARY

November has seen pricing remain stagnant for yet another month as the trend for the market just treading water continues. Since July of this year, we have not seen major declines in the prices throughout the segments.

We see fluctuations here and there, but no real trend that shows our market is picking up or slowing down.

We do however see how the buyer’s avatar has been changing each month.

At the start of the year we saw single-family detached and semi-detached homes spike. Then when they capped out, we saw townhomes and apartments do the same.

As buyers are priced out of one market, they shift to more affordable markets.

However, this month, we have seen a significant drop in townhome prices (5%). While during the same month, we saw a substantial jump in semi-detached home prices (up 8%).

This little shift speaks to the affordability of today’s buyer. There is a significant price difference between the two segments. Therefore, for a buyer to become more active in the attached market shows that the recent fixed rate declines are giving these buyers more room to breathe with their purchasing power.

Lower rates lead to further each dollar going to the purchase price of the home.

This is also a very good precursor to how things may play out with the spring market if the prime rates drop.

Fixed-rate declines only affect new home mortgages. When the prime rate drops, that is the main event. Things like LOCs, car loans, mortgages, business loans, etc. are all affected. A decline in this rate will lead to much more cash available to consumers.

So what can we expect going into December and the year, I’ll break it down below.

THE BREAKDOWN

With the market prices remaining consistent while the activity is dropping, we are kind of in a one-in, one-out market right now.

The right buyer is coming along, is pre-approved and the home they find is listed well the sellers are reasonable with their asking and a transaction is done.

Most buyers fear the rate conversation and so are sellers now that the conversation of renewals is in the media circuit.

If there has been anything that we have seen over the last five years is that this market is resilient. Everyone needs housing and our city is growing at a pace that hasn’t happened in decades.

We will continue to see a slower market in December with the focus now on holiday shopping and time with family. However, come the new year, I believe history will repeat itself and we will see a spark once again.

To get ahead of that next curve, there are several things you can do now to position yourself to ensure you are ready for it. Or if you can, take advantage now since prices are still at their peaks without the mad dash of a super activity market.

If you want to have a consultation call or a meeting with me to discuss your options, my calendar can be found by clicking here.

I’d love to assist where I can.

Thank you again for your time as always, I truly appreciate it and I hope we can connect, and I can help you with any of your real estate or mortgage needs. If you have any friends or family who would like to join this newsletter, just share the link below and they can sign up.

Link to newsletter

Take care, happy holidays, and have a wonderful new year!

Aly

This month showed us that the easing the Bank of Canada wants to see is starting to take effect in Calgary. Let's get into the numbers and understand where we currently are and how we can continue to see the last few months of this year develop. 

THE STATS

In October, we saw the overall absorption rate (ABS rate) decline from 68% to 64% month over month. This is still significantly higher than the last two years at this time of the year (2021: 36% and 2022: 40%).

This decline has been driven by a significant decline of 11% in sales month over month while the number of active listings dropped 4%. Compared to a year ago, the number of active listings has dropped 21% while the number of sales is still higher by 15%.

The number of sales is down for the second straight month while the number of listings remains consistent in that same period.

On the pricing side, we have seen little change month over month, however, the greater story lies in how the absorption rate and pricing are tied. Which we will get into a bit later.

Month over month, across the detached and semi-detached segments have seen little to no change in median pricing. Townhomes continue to see price increases being up 2%, as well as apartments, which are up 1% but have continued to increase in pricing throughout 2023.

Compared to the average last year, across all segments, Calgary is up between 9-14% and year over year for the month, up between 12-25%.  

The detached and semi-detached segments have seen stagnant pricing since April of this year eluding that their pricing may have capped out to the affordability of today’s buyer.

But what can all this mean for our current market and how can these performance indicators be used to determine where we will end for 2023? Let’s get into it below. 

THE BREAKDOWN

The absorption rate is a great indicator to follow. It allows us to estimate what kind of market we are currently in (>60% - seller, 40-60% - balanced, <40% - buyer) along with it being a leading indicator of how prices will start to change.

Since May, we have continued to see the ABS rate continue its trend of decline, while during this same time, we have seen the detached and semi-detached median pricing hold strong on their pricing and townhomes and apartments increase in value.

As the ABS rate declines, buyers continue to look for more and more affordability. 

And now that we are on the fringe of a balanced market, we are now seeing the increases in apartments and townhomes start to decline. As these continue to decline, the further we will move to a balanced market, leading sellers to adjust their pricing across all segments.

Sellers will be competing more for that buyer as we move through the balanced market to potentially a buyer’s market leading to incentives for buyers to purchase their home.

Now, does the buyer market sound like a possibility soon? Not likely, but could it come in 2-4 years from now? It is a possibility that most should not take lightly.

It's been more and more prevalent in today’s media cycles of the added cost of renewals for those of us who are in a fixed low-rate mortgage from 2021 or early 2022. The sticker shock of these renewals has homeowners worried about how they will manage their next set of mortgage payments.

And this fear is justified with a rate of over 3 times what they have right now.  

These forced renewals will create inventory in the market for those who cannot handle the increased mortgage payment, which will lower our ABS rate further by increasing supply, moving the needle to a buyer’s market where aspiring homeowners are waiting.

But will this massive crash come? Not now. Not in 2023.

And if you keep an eye on the delinquency rates for the charter banks, you will see that is not the trend…yet.

Only time will tell to see if this issue of higher rate renewals is the straw that breaks the housing market’s back to create the inventory that is desperately needed.

But it's also important to remember, that this increase albeit great for buyers, is horrible for homeowners and not something I hope we see in Calgary.  

I worked through the declines of 2015-2018 and trust me the worst feeling in the world is speaking to a seller that wants to sell their home because they cannot afford it but can’t because it is short in value. Hopefully, those days never come.

THANK YOU

As always, thank you for your time to check out my breakdown of the market and the latest stats. I hope you find this useful as always. I have a few links below for anyone that needs assistance. Please feel free to reach out with any questions you might have!

Thank you as always,

Aly

If you need assistance selling or would like to know what your home is worth, feel free to reach out and click here to learn about how I can assist you.

If you are currently in the market to purchase a home, I would love to have a chat and see where I can help you in your particular stage of the journey. I can assist you with:

• Getting pre-approved and starting the journey - click here to set up an appointment

• Already approved, I can help you find your next home - click here to set up your search

• If you have any questions about the process, please feel free to reach out with any questions by call or text at (587) 871-5532

Maybe you aren’t in the market but need some assistance with your mortgage product or questions, please feel free to give me a call above or send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca and we can chat about your specific needs. 

Thank you again and have a great day!

My update is a bit late, and I’m truly sorry for the delay. 

But after all the market headlines like the one above from our Calgary Real Estate Board and all the media outlets celebrating the record of sales in our city, I think it is a bit out there to completely gloss over what is really happening in our market amidst the higher rates, inventory levels, and overall sentiment we as realtors are seeing our market currently.

It’s one thing to see the numbers, it’s completely another thing to see what is happening with buyers and sellers in our market currently. 

So even though this update is late, I hope you still find some great value and possibly a different insight into what is happening in our market.

THE STATS

Those of you who have been using this update as a resource know that I have been tracking the absorption rates since 2019. The graph above will show you the true picture of how our real estate market has been doing comparing the market last year to this year as well as previous years.

And there are a few takeaways I’d like to point out before we start going through the numbers.

1. Seasonality is real and has been evident in each year since I have been keeping track of the market

2. In 2023, we are seeing elevated numbers, but this is the second drop in activity we have seen in the market this year.

In the month of September, we generally see a drop in activity. Although not as significant in previous years as 2023, we see a slight adjustment for people who are settling into their routines, back to work and school, and their focus is not on buying and selling a home.

This year, this adjustment was exaggerated with the significant increase in the 5-year bond market which leads the 2-year fixed mortgage interest rate.

In September, we saw the absorption rate drop by 9% to 69%. A balanced market in real estate is usually between 40 and 60%.

This decline is attributed to a drop, yes a drop in sales, of 10% from the previous month. While this drop in sales had occurred, we had an increase in inventory of listings increase by 1%.

Year over year, our inventory has declined by 355 while our sales have increased by 22%.

When we look at the median prices, we see an interesting trend over the last quarter.

Month over month, pricing across the segments had an average change of an increase of 1%. Townhomes showed a decline in prices while duplexes showed the highest gain of 2%.

We are higher from this same month last year by an average of 18% and for the year higher by an average across all segments of 11%

In the next section, we will break down these numbers and look at what the real sentiment has been in our market over the last month.

THE BREAKDOWN

If we revisit the absorption rate analysis we have a decrease in demand and an increase in supply. My Intro to Economics class at the UofC two decades ago tells me that that will drive prices to be suppressed.

Which is what we have been seeing in our median prices above.

When the articles that have been released blast the headline of record sales for the month, it’s a bit misleading because it gives the impression that our market is pushing forward without any issues.

Higher rates lately have caused a lot of slowdowns in the market.

Personally, I have had buyers lose their purchasing power to a point where they cannot buy anymore because their qualifying rate is way too high for them to purchase a home that they want.  

I’ve also had sellers second guess their sales in today’s market because they are worried about the carrying cost of the next home with the higher rates they are now exposed to.

Not to mention, there are those who are worried about the renewal cost of their home down the road who have added to the inventory levels just out of fear of not making their mortgage payments at renewal because they are in variable-rate mortgages.

The prices in Calgary have stayed somewhat consistent over the last quarter of the year across almost all segments. Which, if the headlines were true, would not be the case and prices should be skyrocketing.

Our market is also now seeing many listings have price adjustments down to adjust for the higher cost of rates that buyers are subjected to.

If a buyer can only afford so much in a market, they are forced to wait until that property becomes available. A seller, not wanting to sell, but in need to sell, will have to adjust their pricing to allow for that buyer to have the ability to buy.

If drastic changes like a lower BOC announcement or an increase in federal programs to allow for significantly more development occur, our market could see a shift. But until then, we are very close to our new balance of market.

The current prices, amount of inventory and number of buyers are close to our new balance of a market.

THANK YOU

I hope you found this update useful. I try and value where I can and hopefully this slightly different perspective can give you another lens to see our market.

If you are in the market to buy, or even just have questions about the process or mortgages, I’d love to connect. Please feel free to give me a call or send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca

And if you are considering to sell, let me work to give you a market report about your home to start. Its quick and no trouble for me at all. I actually tell clients I enjoy doing the evaluations because it helps me get better with my pricing. Please feel free to shoot me a note or fill in the form with your property details by clicking here.

Thanks again and I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your families. Take care,

Aly

When we look at the Calgary market lately, the last thing anyone would expect are price declines. But, funny enough, we have had a few segments start to show some cracks in their pricing due to the higher interest rates and the summer months. 

In this breakdown we look at these particular segments and how price declines can occur in a market that saw sales increase 3% while new listings drop 6%. 

Let’s get to the details!

The Stats

The Absorption Rate - All Calgary Residential Segments

In the month of August, we saw new listings drop by 6% to 3,454 while the number of sales increase by 3% to 2,736. This activity drove our absorption rate back up to 79%. 

This means that nearly 8 of 10 homes that are listing on the market today across all segments are selling. 

Compared to this same month last year, the number of active listings has dropped 48% while the number sales has increased by 22%

This 5% increase in the absorption rate month over month is not uncommon as we have seen in previous years where a tiny increase usually happens around August. If this trend continues, we should see another drop in activity in September before an increase in the later months of the year. 

This is not new information. Our market has been hot. But where the interesting story lies is how this hot market has been sustaining and how the different segments are reacting to the changes in our market conditions and seasonality. 

The Median Price By Segment - Calgary

These segments present a picture of the market still increasing as the months progress, but as you can see in the chart above, two big segments of our market have seen price declines month over month. 

The single-family detached and attached (semi-detached) segments both saw decreases in their prices to bring them to levels closer to March of this year. 

While these two segments have shown a little crack in their prices, townhomes and apartments continue to keep the market as a whole strong. 

While the market has shown some mixed signals so far, we will breakdown the rationale behind the drop in some segments as well as the slight increase in market in our breakdown below. 

The Breakdown

As we have seen this past month, detached and semi-detached homes have seen drops in their pricing while townhomes and apartments have seen a increase. This is understandable once we start to look at a few different factors contributing to these increases.

Rent Increases

In Calgary, rents for 2-bedroom units have ballooned to over 2,300/month, which is only $200 less than owning a 2-bedroom condo apartment with 5% down and a condo fee of $600/month. 

As more people to move to Calgary, rental vacancies are low leaving more and more people to purchasing an apartment (or a townhome if they have a family). This increase in demand has activated our condo market to become more in demand.

Interest Rates and Affordability

Lest we forget the overarching reason for our real estate market being in such a crazy phase. Higher interest rates continue to eat into the purchasing power of potential home owners leading them to afford less and continue to look at more affordable housing options for their home. 

As the rates continue to stay high, we will continue to see this demand of more affordable housing continue until which time that even these segments will be priced too higher for a buyer. 

But we cannot forget that the BOC cannot keep rates high for long. And when a small decline in the rate occurs, this will also lead to more demand as buyer’s purchasing power increases and their appetite to take advantage of the lower rate market will increase. 

This might change the way the pricing increases go. A lower interest rate will increase affordability for a buyer leading them to start looking the other way on the spectrum towards detached and semi-detached homes. 

The market will continue to run at this pace until something significant comes along to change it. This can either come, and most probably from, the BOC next rate announcement in September or a significant change in policy or production speeds for new housing development (which is not likely). 

Forecast

September will be a little bit of drop in the market if seasonality gives us any clue. People are getting back into their routines, school has started, and the focus is no longer into getting the home, but starting to live it in with the family. This might be a great time for a buyer to take advantage of the lack of competition. 

Once that is complete, we should continue to see increases in the demand again as those that would like to move before the holidays will start to be come active. 

My favourite time to list a home is actually December because of lack of sellers during that time. Buyers will continue to look, but most sellers don’t want to inconvenience their holidays. 

If you are currently in the market, the apartment and townhomes market might not be where you want to be looking right now. I would start to focus in on the detached and semi-detached homes to see if you can find some savings. 

And for sellers, if you have a property in the townhome or apartment segments, this when you will get your maximum return. Year over year this same month apartments are up 22%. Definitely a great return on your investment. 

Thank You

As always, thank you for time and checking out this update and market breakdown. I hope you found it useful. If you’d like to set some time aside with me to chat about your questions or needs in the market, please feel free to click here to access my calendar directly. 

I have some great resources if you are looking to buy, sell, or invest. Set up a time with me above and lets talk about how I can help you achieve your real estate goals. 

Thanks - Aly

I’ve been keeping an eye on these stats for some time now and in each of the years, regardless of what the external factors tend to do, there is seasonality to our market.

It ebbs and flows with the consumers' interest in it.

And despite this being one of our busiest years, we are still entering into that lull of the summertime. Albeit a little bit later than usual.

But let’s look at the numbers and what’s been happening this past month.

THE STATS

In the month of July, our active listings declined by 2% to 3,654 from the previous month while the number of sales declined 16% from the month before to 2,655.

These declines have led our absorption rate to drop from the second straight month to 73%. If you recall, we consider a seller market to be in place when the absorption rate is higher than 40%. This is also the first time the rate has dropped for two consecutive months this year.

Year over year, at this same time, the number of active listings has dropped 51% while the number of sales has increased 15%.

In terms of pricing, we have seen either prices maintain or slightly decline depending on the segment you are looking at.

The median prices month over month have remained steady in the detached segment, showed declines in the semi-detached (duplex) and townhome segments, and slightly risen in the apartment segment.

However, year over year on average we are still in a market of stronger pricing from 8-11% depending on the segment.

At this same time last year, we are up in price in the double digits across all segments.

THE BREAKDOWN

The absorption rate declining by 11% is a significant cliff we have seen in our market this year. This is the first time we have seen it decline and the first time we have seen two months of consecutive declines.

However, this isn’t the first time our market has seen this drop. In the chart above, you will see in both 2021 and 2022 we see declines right after the spring market as more and more people start to focus on summer activities rather than looking for or preparing a home for sale.

This year is a bit different in that we saw this “cliff” come slightly later in the year than usual. This can be attributed to the bond yields that dropped earlier this year with the bank failures in the US. This event sparked lower interest rates, which created more purchasing power for buyers, leading to more activity.

But that has come and gone, rates are higher and the BOC is scheduled to make an announcement on their overnight rate in September.

Now we are seeing the decline due to seasonality taking hold. Usually, these declines occur over a 3-4 month timeframe before we see a slight increase in September.

And this is where we might heading as we continue through June to August or September.

This is also where buyers that are looking to purchase a home in a less competitive market might want to start thinking about purchasing now rather than later.

When September comes, and depending on the BOC announcement, if rates remain steady or even decline, a buyer that purchased in August or September with a closing a bit further down can take advantage of a quieter market and revisit their rates prior to closing with the lender they are working with.

That could potentially turn into a win-win for buyers.

For sellers, the market is still in your favour, but the activity might be slowing slightly depending on which price point and segment you are in. Apartments, specifically 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom units are in high demand while homes that are priced north of $700,000 will be sitting a bit longer.

If you do have an apartment or townhouse currently and have been thinking about selling, we should chat about your options and what the pricing might be. It might surprise you. A perfect example of this is one we just sold in Royal Oak in NW Calgary. 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and just over 605 sqft sold for $240,000.

The lull of the summer is as short as our Calgary summer and if the rates stay firm or decline slightly, another frenzy could be on its way come the fall. Being prepared is the best thing you can do if you are looking to buy or sell, and I’d love to be the one to help you through our market.

THANK YOU

As always, I hope you find this article helpful. Some of you might not know this, but my advertising budget solely goes toward the listings I receive to market. My entire pool of business comes from referrals and this newsletter.

I truly enjoy writing these each month and providing you with this insight. I also cannot thank those of you enough for sharing it with your networks and allowing me to grow my business solely on referrals.

That is a badge of honour in our industry, and I love telling new clients my business is built on the wonderful referrals of my network. 

So, thank you once again.

Aly

Each day I spend in real estate I get asked the same question.

How’s the market?

And the way we answer this question is critical to how that person or client perceives us and our business. If we say, “I’m super busy!” The person might take that as we are too busy to speak to them and their needs.

If we say, “Things are a bit slow”, the interpretation is that this agent isn’t successful and might not be able to service my needs in real estate.

But over the years, my answer to this question has really become,

“It’s interesting, to say the least!”.

And the reason for this answer has been because of months like May.

The month of May has been some shocking results across the board. The market is no longer just interesting but now has evolved to the definition of being busy not being the number of transactions we complete but finding the right buyer and sellers for the few deals that are happening.

THE STATS

In the month of May, we saw our absorption rate (ABS) skyrocket to 92%, which is the highest rate in the past 2.5 years. This is also the highest it has been since I started this breakdown in 2019.

This means that for every 10 listings that were available for sale in May, at least 9 of them would sell in the same month. A rate this high is completely sided towards the seller and will leave more and more buyers vying for the same property leading to continued multiple offer situations and competing offers.

This unprecedented rate is solely attributed to our supply and demand in Calgary. Listings in May only grew 2 % from the previous month and are still down 61% from the same time last year.

Sales on the other hand increased 16% month over month and only improved 2% from this same time last year.

The number of buyers in the market has increased to the same levels as last year in the summer market whereas the inventory available has not. 

This drive in the demand has led to pricing continuing to grow into May.

All segments of the market have seen a nearly 10% increase from this same time last year. A detached median-priced home in Calgary currently sits at $656,000.

Although the pricing continues to see inclines from last year the saving grace for buyers can come from the lack of change month over month with all segments relatively the same in pricing from April.

However, this slowing in price may only be short-lived.

We are now going against the last two years' trends of following ABS rates which usually show the number of listings starts to increase as we get into the summer. With the number of listings coming on continuing to stay flat (gold colour on the graph), we can expect the ABS rate to main or increase as we head into the summer months when inventory is seasonally low.

THE BREAKDOWN

Getting 92% on an exam is amazing. I would be over the moon when I would get one of these (usually because they weren’t that common L). But when the kids get it, I’m absolutely thrilled.

I’m not so thrilled when I see it in our ABS rate and our market activity.

These high rates mean those buyers that are challenged with finding a home are getting squeezed out. Those that rely on mortgages for funding their purchase for example.

I represented a buyer last week that needs the conditions of financing to proceed with the sale. Once we submitted the offer, we were one of 10. I received a note from the selling agent that the seller is only considering unconditional offers now and all others are not going to be considered.

The above scenario is scary.

Most buyers that are Millennials haven’t had the luxury of saving the amount needed to buy a home outright and will continue to lose to other generations that have the wealth to do so.

Not to mention that rents continue to increase in Calgary. The last rent I heard for a basement 1-bedroom suite was close to $1,200/month. 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom apartments are closer to $2,200/month.  

So where are they supposed to go? It’s truly a difficult scenario to see and work in.

But there are solutions. They come with compromises but there are ways of being competitive with other offers and putting money aside that can help you win.

Working with the right professionals like a realtor and mortgage broker can build this path.

The increase in activity from buyers significantly increased in May. And I don’t think it has anything to do with the weather or them just realizing they want to find a home.

It has everything to do with the rates that were offered in May. Especially the fixed insured rate.

There were some lenders that we work with that were offering rates as low as 4.39% on a five-year fixed term.

In today’s climate, this is very low. Especially considering the prime rate is currently sitting at 6.7% and the best variable rates I’ve seen are 5.5%.

So when the purchasing power increases because of a lower rate, you have to pounce. 

And oh did they ever. 16% increase in buyer activity month over month is not by accident.

But rates are on the up now. The best I have seen is currently 4.89% for a five-year insured. It is a small increase but can have significant effects on the purchasing power of a buyer that needs to be tested at 6.89%.

This increase will slow buyers slightly, but the lack of inventory will continue to increase prices through the bidding wars each home will demand. 

If you are a seller or even someone that has bought a home in the last two years that would like to downsize, now is your time to sell and move to what you want. As the summer continues you will continue to see your favourability in the market increase.

Buyers, I feel for you and want you to know there is a path. Understanding your numbers, getting pre-approved, working with an agent to find you homes faster than the MLS and having a mortgage broker that understands the ins and outs of the constantly changing lender requirements is critical. 

Knowledge is power in this market. Relying on the MLS and realtor.ca to find your next home is too slow. Hoping to find a deal by working with a listing agent instead of having your own does not help.

If there is anything I can do for you to achieve your home ownership goals, I hope you know it would be my pleasure.

Sellers, the same for you. I want to try and get in front of as many homeowners as I can to show how much they can get from their investments. Calgary and Alberta homeowners have waited a long time to take advantage of the real estate market, I just don’t want you to see it slip by.

As always, thank you for your time and I hope you found the information useful. Take care and please connect with me any way below. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this piece, your real estate or mortgage goals, and really anything else you’d like to chat about.

Take care and thank you,

Aly

It seems fitting to use the word “drought” when describing the real estate market in Calgary this past month. It seems the further we head into the summer months; our real estate market continues to get more and more competitive. And it doesn’t show signs of slowing down any time soon. But that might change!

How did we do this month compared to last, or even last year? Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers above and understand where we might be going as we head into the summer months. 

THE STATS

In April, our absorption rate increased by 10% from last month to the highest point so far this year, 81%. This means that for every 10 listings available on the market today, just over 8 of them would be sold.

The last time we hit this high was in February of 2022 at 86%.

But there was a cliff in 2022, which I’ll get into a little bit later.

Compared to last month, our number of listings is down 3% while the number of sales increased by 11%. This growing appetite for buyers in our market is something that was initially triggered last month and has continued through April.

Compared to last year, we are down a whopping 52% in listings from this same time while sales have only decreased 26%. Another indicator of a buyer’s appetite on our market remains strong.

Comparing from last year to now, for everyone listing that comes on for sale, there are 2 buyers ready to purchase it based on the above metrics.

Albeit it's not the insanity of 2021 that we exhibited with properties attracting 20 to 30 offers, however, it is still a very steady slow bleed of inventory.

And this slow bleed is the one that should be concerning to those wanting to buy in our real estate market.

As this trend continues, inventory will continue to decline leaving more and more buyers vying for the same property.

And this time, it will be out of necessity, not a crazed mindset to purchase because of excess cash in the hands of consumers.

The pricing for each segment has continued to see growth, except for the semi-detached segment, which saw a decline. The increases across the board have been modest month over month, but we are still very much a more expensive market than a year ago.

THE BREAKDOWN

Remember when I mentioned that cliff in 2022? Well, here is how it went down last year to jog your memory. In March, our ABS (absorption rate) was 88%. In April, that number tanked to 67%.

The reason for this big correction was higher interest rate announcements.

Well, those higher rates are now the norm.

There are more and more deals falling apart now due to issues with financing because of higher interest rates, harder qualification rates and criteria and more and more lenders shying away from taking on more mortgages.

BTW, you can tell a lender doesn’t want more mortgage business when they set their rates to levels that are way outside of the competitive market.

So, with these higher rates sticking around now, buyers are having trouble qualifying (but those that are prepared are still very active) and sellers are scared to come to the market if their intention is to find that next home. With higher interest rates and higher prices, they are deciding to stay put.

But every seller has a price in mind that they would like to see before listing their home for sale. As we continue to have higher and higher pricing, those that want to downsize might be seeing their price goal soon and decide to list.

And it’s funny, in real estate, as one goes, so do the neighbours.

We can expect to see a little bit of recovery with listing numbers as sale prices become more and more enticing for sellers that are able to take advantage.

When supply increases, hopefully, it can eat into the demand and stabilize pricing.

But only time will tell if we can recover some of the significant losses in our inventory.

If you are considering selling, it is still a very, very good time for you. Let’s discuss your options.

Buying a home is a bit tricky nowadays, but not impossible. We should discuss how you can position yourself so that you are able to have everything in order and act quickly so that you can take advantage of the market over those buyers that don’t have their financial house in order.

THANK YOU!

As always, I truly appreciate your time to review my breakdown of the market last month. I hope you find the pace of it easy and at the same time very informative for you. If there are any improvements you can see that I can make, I’d love to hear from you. Please feel free to reach out at any time.

Thank you again and have a wonderful month ahead.

March 2023 Calgary Real Estate Report

The real estate market is constantly evolving and adjusting to external forces that can impact buyers and sellers with the purchase or sale of properties. 

This past month, the failure of a major US bank might have spurred our real estate market to recuperate to levels that we had only seen during the pandemic. 

A time when rates were low.

In this breakdown, we look at the current market conditions for the first month of the spring market and how this major bank failure has caused ripple effects to the housing industry in Calgary. 

Let's dive right in.

Aggregated Market Stats

In March we saw the absorption rate (ABS) soar to 11% from the previous month's 71%. This 11% increase is attributed to an increase of 18% in listings versus an increase in sales of 39%. 

With the number of sales outpacing listings 2 to 1, the inventory in Calgary continues to see declines. 

Compared to last year at this same time, our ABS rate was 88%. Listings have declined year over year at this time of 36% while sales are down 68%. 

In 2021, at this time our ABS rate was 51%

When the ABS rate is over 40% it is considered a strong seller's market. 

Median Prices By Segment

The prices in the great Calgary area show to share the same tale as the ABS rates. 

Prices increased across all segments between 2-5%. Year over year, the greatest increase has been seen in the attached segment. 

This increase in the attached segment can be attributed to affordability for buyers as they become more and more squeezed out of the single-family detached homes as prices continue to rise. 

Apartments also exhibited increases year over year with the increased cost of renting vs. owning. This segment is also very appealing to investors that are noticing higher rates of returns from rentals as vacancy rates continue to decline. 

These numbers show a great story of how our real estate market has been progressing this year. However, as we all know, the spring market is a beast in itself. Below we look at some of these factors and how they can impact April and May.

The Breakdown

Sales are up. The number of listings is down. When this normally happens, we have prices increase. 

The simplicity of the above statement might be a bit of a stretch...but is it really?

If you hear most economists or bank representatives, they all predicted a significant shift in the market while the interest rates rose each quarter in the last couple of years. 

Before the failure of Silicon Bank in the US, all rates were extremely high. The prime rate is still around 6.7% at the time of this publication. 

But prices are still the highest they have been. Along with other expenses like food and gas. 

So where is the disconnect here?

Housing prices are not the direct inverse of interest rates. If that were the case, when rates were super low through 2009-2014, our real estate market should have soared with pricing. 

That didn't happen. And neither are the declining prices now with the higher rates. 

For this relationship of prices to interest rates to be directly related, you'd have to assume that:

1.     Everyone is getting a mortgage that is purchasing a property.

2.     They are all in long-term mortgages

But what happens when those with cash to invest do so without a mortgage and those that have a mortgage obtain a variable rate mortgage and get to ride the highs and lows of the benchmark rate?

Not to mention they have a 3-month penalty to break their mortgage and refinance it with a lower rate and higher discount later on. 

This is where the direct relationship of price to interest rates falls apart. 

The failure of this US Bank has shown that the economy, even one as strong as the US market, cannot continue to accommodate higher interest rates. 

Our economy is significantly smaller and is more exposed to failures like this. 

That is why the 5-year bond yield (which drives the fixed mortgage rates) fell off a cliff once this bank failed. Below is an illustration:

Now, what happens when the cost of borrowing declines?

More money is available to buyers to put towards their homes rather than service debt, leading to the ability to pay more for their purchase. 

Which is music to sellers' ears allowing them to continue the trend of higher prices. 

The spring is generally when we see both higher inventory numbers and higher prices. However, if the inventory continues to be outpaced by sales, we can continue to expect higher pricing and an increase in the pool of buyers with more money to spend with less selection. 

Thank You

Thank you for taking the time to check out this breakdown and market update. As always if you have questions, I'd love to answer them. Please feel free to reach out to my office at (587) 871-5532 or shoot me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca. 

If you are considering a sale right now, I'd love to chat. Please feel free to reach out any way above or connect with me on social media and we can go from there. 

Take care and have a great day ahead. 

It's not just a house. It's home. Let's chat about how I can help. 

- Aly

The month of December is special. it brings families together, which in today's world is so much more important. 

And its not that much different in real estate. When everyone takes the time off to enjoy the holidays, the market says, "well if everyone is doing it, why not me?" 

If you are interested to learn why that is, jump into this month's breakdown to learn why. 

AGGREGATED ABSORPTION RATE - CALGARY

In the month of December, the number of sales (buyer activity) dropped month over month to 1,212 or a 26% drop. At the same time, the number of active listings dropped to 2,402 listings or a drop of 28%.

See what I mean?

When the number of active listings is in lockstep with the buyer's activity, there is no change to the market activity. 

And the market becomes stagnant. 

The evidence for this lies in the absorption rate of the number of listings that are sold each month. In December, the rate of absorption was 50%, which is unchanged from the previous month, and only 5% higher than in October. 

As this type of market continues, we will continue to see the absorption rate remain the same. Where this becomes important is when we discuss price and where they are going with a market change like this.

MEDIAN PRICES PER SEGMENT - CALGARY

DETACHED

In the month of December, the median price for detached single-family homes increased by 2% to $570,000 from $561,000 the previous month.  

ATTACHED

Attached (or duplex or semi-detached) homes in Calgary saw their pricing rise 4% from the previous month and currently have a median price of $512,000.

TOWNHOMES

Condominium townhomes in Calgary saw a decline in median price from the previous month by 1% to $350,000. 

APARTMENTS

Apartments in Calgary saw an increase month over month of 3% to $258,500. 

THE BREAKDOWN

The number of listings available to buyers declined in December due to continued strain on the interest rates that were imposed in the month and the season of the market. 

Further interest rates are expected in early 2023 with the first BOC meeting in January. However, the verbiage that has now been shared seems to show that the increases are easing and could potentially stop. 

If this were the case, we can expect pricing to start increasing as more and more buyers will enter a market where supply is still very constrained. 

In addition to the rate factors, we continue to see the seasonality of the market continue to affect how the market changes. With more people enjoying the holidays, we saw fewer homes for sale and fewer buyers focused on buying. This will continue to change as the colder months subside and the spring market approaches. 

Sellers that are savvy and would like to get ahead of the spring market should seriously consider selling now or in February to have their home in front of today's buyers. When the spring market comes, more and more competition will dilute their home in the market with all the others (email me at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca to chat about how we can position you to get the most exposure now)

Heading into 2023 we can further expect a limited affect on pricing due to the lack of activity in the market. As external factors like interest rates and the weather start to change, we can expect an uptick in the spring market activity and hopefully return to normal market trends for the year. 

THANK YOU

Thank you for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope you found it helpful and that it helped to answer any questions you have. if you'd like to learn more about my services, and the listings we have, or just to connect with me, please feel free to visit all my channels by clicking here.

Thank you again and have an amazing day and year ahead!

Aly

Moving can be challenging. You are unsure of where to start, and how to tackle the move, not to mention you don't want to forget any major steps. 

I totally appreciate this mindset and it is the main reason I wanted to put this blog together for you to refer to. In it, I will have a few items that will make your move so much easier as well as a few service providers that you can utilize to help you along the way. 

The Calgary real estate market is a very resilient market, to say the least. 

In the almost 7 years I have had the opportunity to work in this industry we have seen pricing drop with the decline of oil prices, the surge of pricing due to foreign and out-of-province purchases, and now with higher interest rates, we haven't seen the massive spike or decline that most would have expected. 

In fact, the last two months have shown pricing to start to return to levels earlier this year. 

What that is, is what we will be looking at today in this breakdown. 

But first, let's have a quick look at the stats that we have for November. 

Calgary Aggregated Absorption Rates

In the month of November, we saw the absorption rate for all housing segments in Calgary surge back up to 50%, which is a 5% increase month-over-month and brings us back in line with rates we were seeing in May and June of this year. 

However, even though 1 in every 2 homes for sale currently is sold, the number of transactions has significantly reduced. 

In April of this year, we had seen the number of listings hover around 5,000 while the number of sales was around 3,400. Today, these numbers have declined to 3,316 active listings and 1,651 sales. 

This decline in activity has definitely been attributed to the higher interest rates. Someone back in May or April of this year could very well be priced out of homes now due to the higher interest rates (and higher qualifying rates) they would be exposed to today. 

Month-over-month, we have seen the number of listings decline by 19% while the number of homes sold decline by 11%. This outpacing of declines in listings compared to sales is driving our market to continue to maintain relatively strong pricing. 

Compared to last year, the number of listings has declined by 27% while the number of sales declined by 28%, leaving us at virtually the same absorption rate we had at the same time last year. 

Calgary Median Pricing Per Segment

This month we saw the single-family segment decline in pricing with a 4% drop month-over-month to $560,500. This is the lowest median price for single-family homes this year, after a rally of pricing the previous month. 

The attached (semi-detached) segment saw pricing increase by 5% to $493,000 from the previous months. The last time pricing for this segment was that high was back in April and May of this year. 

The townhome segment also saw strong gains in pricing, higher by 5% month over month to $352,500.

Apartments saw no change month-over-month and remain at a median price of $250,000. 

The Breakdown - Why Pricing is Maintain?

When you read about higher interest rates, what is your first thought about who it impacts?

You could be thinking that it is impacting new buyers that want to enter the market since rents have increased significantly. 

And if this is your first thought, you wouldn't be wrong. But it doesn't explain the big picture. 

When a higher interest rate is announced, sellers and homeowners are the ones that are impacted the most. They don't have the luxury of deciding to not enter the real estate market and continue to rent when a new rate hike is announced. 

They are the ones that need to adjust their budgets to accommodate higher rates. Or need to decide if they cannot continue to afford their home, should they consider a sale. 

Thankfully the homeowners of today that would have recently bought their homes in the last 4 years were qualified at rates much higher than what they received. And can weather the storm at higher rates. 

But in doing this, they are also not putting their homes up for sale as most buyers would like. 

The pricing we have in Calgary is not solely driven by interest rates. People tend to forget that homes, unlike stocks and bonds, are not readily traded all the time. There aren't corporations and stakeholders in most home sales. 

So when a seller is spooked about higher interest rates, they get spooked out of the market. They will decide that selling my home now, although being a hot commodity to the market, need to worry about potentially higher rates and a bigger mortgage than what I have now. 

And this sentiment is what is driving our active number of listings to continue to decline each month since our peak in June. Sellers are worried about the uncertainty of the market and for the most part are worried that if they sell, there is nothing for them to buy. 

When the number of listings drops, buyers have less selection, leading them to bid on homes that are available, which in turn increases pricing. 

With more uncertainty from higher rates, legislation, and not knowing where they can go, sellers are not entering the market as fast as the demand would like, leading to buyers paying higher prices and higher interest rates. 

Now you might point out and say that the single-family segment has seen a drop in pricing, as we mentioned above. That is 100% correct. But if you ask any Calgarian, if they feel a single-family home median price should be $560,500, you would get a unanimous response of it still being very high for our city. 

As long as our inventory levels are this low, we will continue to see pricing remain strong. And so far this year we have followed the same seasonal trend of 2021, which means the market will continue to see higher prices as absorption rates increase and the level of listings decline into the holidays. 

Thank You!

As always, thank you so much for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope it was useful and provided you with some insight into where things are heading as we enter 2023. 

if you'd like to connect, feel free to send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca or send me a message with the number below. 

Have a wonderful holiday and I hope 2023 brings with it plenty of joy and happiness to you and your loved ones!