Each day I spend in real estate I get asked the same question.

How’s the market?

And the way we answer this question is critical to how that person or client perceives us and our business. If we say, “I’m super busy!” The person might take that as we are too busy to speak to them and their needs.

If we say, “Things are a bit slow”, the interpretation is that this agent isn’t successful and might not be able to service my needs in real estate.

But over the years, my answer to this question has really become,

“It’s interesting, to say the least!”.

And the reason for this answer has been because of months like May.

The month of May has been some shocking results across the board. The market is no longer just interesting but now has evolved to the definition of being busy not being the number of transactions we complete but finding the right buyer and sellers for the few deals that are happening.

THE STATS

In the month of May, we saw our absorption rate (ABS) skyrocket to 92%, which is the highest rate in the past 2.5 years. This is also the highest it has been since I started this breakdown in 2019.

This means that for every 10 listings that were available for sale in May, at least 9 of them would sell in the same month. A rate this high is completely sided towards the seller and will leave more and more buyers vying for the same property leading to continued multiple offer situations and competing offers.

This unprecedented rate is solely attributed to our supply and demand in Calgary. Listings in May only grew 2 % from the previous month and are still down 61% from the same time last year.

Sales on the other hand increased 16% month over month and only improved 2% from this same time last year.

The number of buyers in the market has increased to the same levels as last year in the summer market whereas the inventory available has not. 

This drive in the demand has led to pricing continuing to grow into May.

All segments of the market have seen a nearly 10% increase from this same time last year. A detached median-priced home in Calgary currently sits at $656,000.

Although the pricing continues to see inclines from last year the saving grace for buyers can come from the lack of change month over month with all segments relatively the same in pricing from April.

However, this slowing in price may only be short-lived.

We are now going against the last two years' trends of following ABS rates which usually show the number of listings starts to increase as we get into the summer. With the number of listings coming on continuing to stay flat (gold colour on the graph), we can expect the ABS rate to main or increase as we head into the summer months when inventory is seasonally low.

THE BREAKDOWN

Getting 92% on an exam is amazing. I would be over the moon when I would get one of these (usually because they weren’t that common L). But when the kids get it, I’m absolutely thrilled.

I’m not so thrilled when I see it in our ABS rate and our market activity.

These high rates mean those buyers that are challenged with finding a home are getting squeezed out. Those that rely on mortgages for funding their purchase for example.

I represented a buyer last week that needs the conditions of financing to proceed with the sale. Once we submitted the offer, we were one of 10. I received a note from the selling agent that the seller is only considering unconditional offers now and all others are not going to be considered.

The above scenario is scary.

Most buyers that are Millennials haven’t had the luxury of saving the amount needed to buy a home outright and will continue to lose to other generations that have the wealth to do so.

Not to mention that rents continue to increase in Calgary. The last rent I heard for a basement 1-bedroom suite was close to $1,200/month. 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom apartments are closer to $2,200/month.  

So where are they supposed to go? It’s truly a difficult scenario to see and work in.

But there are solutions. They come with compromises but there are ways of being competitive with other offers and putting money aside that can help you win.

Working with the right professionals like a realtor and mortgage broker can build this path.

The increase in activity from buyers significantly increased in May. And I don’t think it has anything to do with the weather or them just realizing they want to find a home.

It has everything to do with the rates that were offered in May. Especially the fixed insured rate.

There were some lenders that we work with that were offering rates as low as 4.39% on a five-year fixed term.

In today’s climate, this is very low. Especially considering the prime rate is currently sitting at 6.7% and the best variable rates I’ve seen are 5.5%.

So when the purchasing power increases because of a lower rate, you have to pounce. 

And oh did they ever. 16% increase in buyer activity month over month is not by accident.

But rates are on the up now. The best I have seen is currently 4.89% for a five-year insured. It is a small increase but can have significant effects on the purchasing power of a buyer that needs to be tested at 6.89%.

This increase will slow buyers slightly, but the lack of inventory will continue to increase prices through the bidding wars each home will demand. 

If you are a seller or even someone that has bought a home in the last two years that would like to downsize, now is your time to sell and move to what you want. As the summer continues you will continue to see your favourability in the market increase.

Buyers, I feel for you and want you to know there is a path. Understanding your numbers, getting pre-approved, working with an agent to find you homes faster than the MLS and having a mortgage broker that understands the ins and outs of the constantly changing lender requirements is critical. 

Knowledge is power in this market. Relying on the MLS and realtor.ca to find your next home is too slow. Hoping to find a deal by working with a listing agent instead of having your own does not help.

If there is anything I can do for you to achieve your home ownership goals, I hope you know it would be my pleasure.

Sellers, the same for you. I want to try and get in front of as many homeowners as I can to show how much they can get from their investments. Calgary and Alberta homeowners have waited a long time to take advantage of the real estate market, I just don’t want you to see it slip by.

As always, thank you for your time and I hope you found the information useful. Take care and please connect with me any way below. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this piece, your real estate or mortgage goals, and really anything else you’d like to chat about.

Take care and thank you,

Aly

It seems fitting to use the word “drought” when describing the real estate market in Calgary this past month. It seems the further we head into the summer months; our real estate market continues to get more and more competitive. And it doesn’t show signs of slowing down any time soon. But that might change!

How did we do this month compared to last, or even last year? Let’s take a deep dive into the numbers above and understand where we might be going as we head into the summer months. 

THE STATS

In April, our absorption rate increased by 10% from last month to the highest point so far this year, 81%. This means that for every 10 listings available on the market today, just over 8 of them would be sold.

The last time we hit this high was in February of 2022 at 86%.

But there was a cliff in 2022, which I’ll get into a little bit later.

Compared to last month, our number of listings is down 3% while the number of sales increased by 11%. This growing appetite for buyers in our market is something that was initially triggered last month and has continued through April.

Compared to last year, we are down a whopping 52% in listings from this same time while sales have only decreased 26%. Another indicator of a buyer’s appetite on our market remains strong.

Comparing from last year to now, for everyone listing that comes on for sale, there are 2 buyers ready to purchase it based on the above metrics.

Albeit it's not the insanity of 2021 that we exhibited with properties attracting 20 to 30 offers, however, it is still a very steady slow bleed of inventory.

And this slow bleed is the one that should be concerning to those wanting to buy in our real estate market.

As this trend continues, inventory will continue to decline leaving more and more buyers vying for the same property.

And this time, it will be out of necessity, not a crazed mindset to purchase because of excess cash in the hands of consumers.

The pricing for each segment has continued to see growth, except for the semi-detached segment, which saw a decline. The increases across the board have been modest month over month, but we are still very much a more expensive market than a year ago.

THE BREAKDOWN

Remember when I mentioned that cliff in 2022? Well, here is how it went down last year to jog your memory. In March, our ABS (absorption rate) was 88%. In April, that number tanked to 67%.

The reason for this big correction was higher interest rate announcements.

Well, those higher rates are now the norm.

There are more and more deals falling apart now due to issues with financing because of higher interest rates, harder qualification rates and criteria and more and more lenders shying away from taking on more mortgages.

BTW, you can tell a lender doesn’t want more mortgage business when they set their rates to levels that are way outside of the competitive market.

So, with these higher rates sticking around now, buyers are having trouble qualifying (but those that are prepared are still very active) and sellers are scared to come to the market if their intention is to find that next home. With higher interest rates and higher prices, they are deciding to stay put.

But every seller has a price in mind that they would like to see before listing their home for sale. As we continue to have higher and higher pricing, those that want to downsize might be seeing their price goal soon and decide to list.

And it’s funny, in real estate, as one goes, so do the neighbours.

We can expect to see a little bit of recovery with listing numbers as sale prices become more and more enticing for sellers that are able to take advantage.

When supply increases, hopefully, it can eat into the demand and stabilize pricing.

But only time will tell if we can recover some of the significant losses in our inventory.

If you are considering selling, it is still a very, very good time for you. Let’s discuss your options.

Buying a home is a bit tricky nowadays, but not impossible. We should discuss how you can position yourself so that you are able to have everything in order and act quickly so that you can take advantage of the market over those buyers that don’t have their financial house in order.

THANK YOU!

As always, I truly appreciate your time to review my breakdown of the market last month. I hope you find the pace of it easy and at the same time very informative for you. If there are any improvements you can see that I can make, I’d love to hear from you. Please feel free to reach out at any time.

Thank you again and have a wonderful month ahead.

March 2023 Calgary Real Estate Report

The real estate market is constantly evolving and adjusting to external forces that can impact buyers and sellers with the purchase or sale of properties. 

This past month, the failure of a major US bank might have spurred our real estate market to recuperate to levels that we had only seen during the pandemic. 

A time when rates were low.

In this breakdown, we look at the current market conditions for the first month of the spring market and how this major bank failure has caused ripple effects to the housing industry in Calgary. 

Let's dive right in.

Aggregated Market Stats

In March we saw the absorption rate (ABS) soar to 11% from the previous month's 71%. This 11% increase is attributed to an increase of 18% in listings versus an increase in sales of 39%. 

With the number of sales outpacing listings 2 to 1, the inventory in Calgary continues to see declines. 

Compared to last year at this same time, our ABS rate was 88%. Listings have declined year over year at this time of 36% while sales are down 68%. 

In 2021, at this time our ABS rate was 51%

When the ABS rate is over 40% it is considered a strong seller's market. 

Median Prices By Segment

The prices in the great Calgary area show to share the same tale as the ABS rates. 

Prices increased across all segments between 2-5%. Year over year, the greatest increase has been seen in the attached segment. 

This increase in the attached segment can be attributed to affordability for buyers as they become more and more squeezed out of the single-family detached homes as prices continue to rise. 

Apartments also exhibited increases year over year with the increased cost of renting vs. owning. This segment is also very appealing to investors that are noticing higher rates of returns from rentals as vacancy rates continue to decline. 

These numbers show a great story of how our real estate market has been progressing this year. However, as we all know, the spring market is a beast in itself. Below we look at some of these factors and how they can impact April and May.

The Breakdown

Sales are up. The number of listings is down. When this normally happens, we have prices increase. 

The simplicity of the above statement might be a bit of a stretch...but is it really?

If you hear most economists or bank representatives, they all predicted a significant shift in the market while the interest rates rose each quarter in the last couple of years. 

Before the failure of Silicon Bank in the US, all rates were extremely high. The prime rate is still around 6.7% at the time of this publication. 

But prices are still the highest they have been. Along with other expenses like food and gas. 

So where is the disconnect here?

Housing prices are not the direct inverse of interest rates. If that were the case, when rates were super low through 2009-2014, our real estate market should have soared with pricing. 

That didn't happen. And neither are the declining prices now with the higher rates. 

For this relationship of prices to interest rates to be directly related, you'd have to assume that:

1.     Everyone is getting a mortgage that is purchasing a property.

2.     They are all in long-term mortgages

But what happens when those with cash to invest do so without a mortgage and those that have a mortgage obtain a variable rate mortgage and get to ride the highs and lows of the benchmark rate?

Not to mention they have a 3-month penalty to break their mortgage and refinance it with a lower rate and higher discount later on. 

This is where the direct relationship of price to interest rates falls apart. 

The failure of this US Bank has shown that the economy, even one as strong as the US market, cannot continue to accommodate higher interest rates. 

Our economy is significantly smaller and is more exposed to failures like this. 

That is why the 5-year bond yield (which drives the fixed mortgage rates) fell off a cliff once this bank failed. Below is an illustration:

Now, what happens when the cost of borrowing declines?

More money is available to buyers to put towards their homes rather than service debt, leading to the ability to pay more for their purchase. 

Which is music to sellers' ears allowing them to continue the trend of higher prices. 

The spring is generally when we see both higher inventory numbers and higher prices. However, if the inventory continues to be outpaced by sales, we can continue to expect higher pricing and an increase in the pool of buyers with more money to spend with less selection. 

Thank You

Thank you for taking the time to check out this breakdown and market update. As always if you have questions, I'd love to answer them. Please feel free to reach out to my office at (587) 871-5532 or shoot me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca. 

If you are considering a sale right now, I'd love to chat. Please feel free to reach out any way above or connect with me on social media and we can go from there. 

Take care and have a great day ahead. 

It's not just a house. It's home. Let's chat about how I can help. 

- Aly

The month of December is special. it brings families together, which in today's world is so much more important. 

And its not that much different in real estate. When everyone takes the time off to enjoy the holidays, the market says, "well if everyone is doing it, why not me?" 

If you are interested to learn why that is, jump into this month's breakdown to learn why. 

AGGREGATED ABSORPTION RATE - CALGARY

In the month of December, the number of sales (buyer activity) dropped month over month to 1,212 or a 26% drop. At the same time, the number of active listings dropped to 2,402 listings or a drop of 28%.

See what I mean?

When the number of active listings is in lockstep with the buyer's activity, there is no change to the market activity. 

And the market becomes stagnant. 

The evidence for this lies in the absorption rate of the number of listings that are sold each month. In December, the rate of absorption was 50%, which is unchanged from the previous month, and only 5% higher than in October. 

As this type of market continues, we will continue to see the absorption rate remain the same. Where this becomes important is when we discuss price and where they are going with a market change like this.

MEDIAN PRICES PER SEGMENT - CALGARY

DETACHED

In the month of December, the median price for detached single-family homes increased by 2% to $570,000 from $561,000 the previous month.  

ATTACHED

Attached (or duplex or semi-detached) homes in Calgary saw their pricing rise 4% from the previous month and currently have a median price of $512,000.

TOWNHOMES

Condominium townhomes in Calgary saw a decline in median price from the previous month by 1% to $350,000. 

APARTMENTS

Apartments in Calgary saw an increase month over month of 3% to $258,500. 

THE BREAKDOWN

The number of listings available to buyers declined in December due to continued strain on the interest rates that were imposed in the month and the season of the market. 

Further interest rates are expected in early 2023 with the first BOC meeting in January. However, the verbiage that has now been shared seems to show that the increases are easing and could potentially stop. 

If this were the case, we can expect pricing to start increasing as more and more buyers will enter a market where supply is still very constrained. 

In addition to the rate factors, we continue to see the seasonality of the market continue to affect how the market changes. With more people enjoying the holidays, we saw fewer homes for sale and fewer buyers focused on buying. This will continue to change as the colder months subside and the spring market approaches. 

Sellers that are savvy and would like to get ahead of the spring market should seriously consider selling now or in February to have their home in front of today's buyers. When the spring market comes, more and more competition will dilute their home in the market with all the others (email me at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca to chat about how we can position you to get the most exposure now)

Heading into 2023 we can further expect a limited affect on pricing due to the lack of activity in the market. As external factors like interest rates and the weather start to change, we can expect an uptick in the spring market activity and hopefully return to normal market trends for the year. 

THANK YOU

Thank you for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope you found it helpful and that it helped to answer any questions you have. if you'd like to learn more about my services, and the listings we have, or just to connect with me, please feel free to visit all my channels by clicking here.

Thank you again and have an amazing day and year ahead!

Aly

Moving can be challenging. You are unsure of where to start, and how to tackle the move, not to mention you don't want to forget any major steps. 

I totally appreciate this mindset and it is the main reason I wanted to put this blog together for you to refer to. In it, I will have a few items that will make your move so much easier as well as a few service providers that you can utilize to help you along the way. 

The Calgary real estate market is a very resilient market, to say the least. 

In the almost 7 years I have had the opportunity to work in this industry we have seen pricing drop with the decline of oil prices, the surge of pricing due to foreign and out-of-province purchases, and now with higher interest rates, we haven't seen the massive spike or decline that most would have expected. 

In fact, the last two months have shown pricing to start to return to levels earlier this year. 

What that is, is what we will be looking at today in this breakdown. 

But first, let's have a quick look at the stats that we have for November. 

Calgary Aggregated Absorption Rates

In the month of November, we saw the absorption rate for all housing segments in Calgary surge back up to 50%, which is a 5% increase month-over-month and brings us back in line with rates we were seeing in May and June of this year. 

However, even though 1 in every 2 homes for sale currently is sold, the number of transactions has significantly reduced. 

In April of this year, we had seen the number of listings hover around 5,000 while the number of sales was around 3,400. Today, these numbers have declined to 3,316 active listings and 1,651 sales. 

This decline in activity has definitely been attributed to the higher interest rates. Someone back in May or April of this year could very well be priced out of homes now due to the higher interest rates (and higher qualifying rates) they would be exposed to today. 

Month-over-month, we have seen the number of listings decline by 19% while the number of homes sold decline by 11%. This outpacing of declines in listings compared to sales is driving our market to continue to maintain relatively strong pricing. 

Compared to last year, the number of listings has declined by 27% while the number of sales declined by 28%, leaving us at virtually the same absorption rate we had at the same time last year. 

Calgary Median Pricing Per Segment

This month we saw the single-family segment decline in pricing with a 4% drop month-over-month to $560,500. This is the lowest median price for single-family homes this year, after a rally of pricing the previous month. 

The attached (semi-detached) segment saw pricing increase by 5% to $493,000 from the previous months. The last time pricing for this segment was that high was back in April and May of this year. 

The townhome segment also saw strong gains in pricing, higher by 5% month over month to $352,500.

Apartments saw no change month-over-month and remain at a median price of $250,000. 

The Breakdown - Why Pricing is Maintain?

When you read about higher interest rates, what is your first thought about who it impacts?

You could be thinking that it is impacting new buyers that want to enter the market since rents have increased significantly. 

And if this is your first thought, you wouldn't be wrong. But it doesn't explain the big picture. 

When a higher interest rate is announced, sellers and homeowners are the ones that are impacted the most. They don't have the luxury of deciding to not enter the real estate market and continue to rent when a new rate hike is announced. 

They are the ones that need to adjust their budgets to accommodate higher rates. Or need to decide if they cannot continue to afford their home, should they consider a sale. 

Thankfully the homeowners of today that would have recently bought their homes in the last 4 years were qualified at rates much higher than what they received. And can weather the storm at higher rates. 

But in doing this, they are also not putting their homes up for sale as most buyers would like. 

The pricing we have in Calgary is not solely driven by interest rates. People tend to forget that homes, unlike stocks and bonds, are not readily traded all the time. There aren't corporations and stakeholders in most home sales. 

So when a seller is spooked about higher interest rates, they get spooked out of the market. They will decide that selling my home now, although being a hot commodity to the market, need to worry about potentially higher rates and a bigger mortgage than what I have now. 

And this sentiment is what is driving our active number of listings to continue to decline each month since our peak in June. Sellers are worried about the uncertainty of the market and for the most part are worried that if they sell, there is nothing for them to buy. 

When the number of listings drops, buyers have less selection, leading them to bid on homes that are available, which in turn increases pricing. 

With more uncertainty from higher rates, legislation, and not knowing where they can go, sellers are not entering the market as fast as the demand would like, leading to buyers paying higher prices and higher interest rates. 

Now you might point out and say that the single-family segment has seen a drop in pricing, as we mentioned above. That is 100% correct. But if you ask any Calgarian, if they feel a single-family home median price should be $560,500, you would get a unanimous response of it still being very high for our city. 

As long as our inventory levels are this low, we will continue to see pricing remain strong. And so far this year we have followed the same seasonal trend of 2021, which means the market will continue to see higher prices as absorption rates increase and the level of listings decline into the holidays. 

Thank You!

As always, thank you so much for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope it was useful and provided you with some insight into where things are heading as we enter 2023. 

if you'd like to connect, feel free to send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca or send me a message with the number below. 

Have a wonderful holiday and I hope 2023 brings with it plenty of joy and happiness to you and your loved ones!