How's Our Real Estate Market Like Tom Brady?

When we talk about the greatness of Tom Brady, we don’t only mention the 6 Superbowl championship, the nine championship appearances or the record number of Superbowl MVPs he has been accredited in his career. 


What do we talk about when he is in the conversation now?


The cliff. 


He is a 43-year-old quarterback in a league where the average age in his position has been declining each year. Heck, he just played the Chargers, who’s quarterback is 22 years old. 


But he still scored 5 touchdowns that game.


So what does that have to do with real estate and our current market? 


The real estate industry has been around since the 1800s, so no spring chicken. From that time, it has seen some of the worst economic disasters that have tested the industry. This is much like the 2 Superbowl championships Brady lost to the Giants (full disclosure, I’m a Giants fan). But even after those losses, he still was a perennial visitor to the Superbowl after. 


Over the years we have seen significant instances where we have seen crashes in our real estate markets. Two that come to mind right away are the mortgage crash of 2008 and the crash of the O&G sector in 2015. 


During both of these times, we have seen a recovery. We have seen growth. And not only the Canadian real estate market but in the Alberta market as well. From 2008 to 2014 we saw steady inclines in the market and this year as well from the crash of 2015 we have seen some ever so modest growth in pricing and declines in inventory.  


It’s funny I could only think of two right now, still thinking of those two Giants wins. :P 


The point is, if there is resilience, there will be prosperity. 


Alberta is the youngest population in the country. That doesn’t happen by accident. We are a province filled with untapped potential and I do believe we will see growth in not only our real estate market but the development of new industries. 


Our pricing in Calgary has increased, mostly due to the interest rate declining and the pandemic affecting sellers’ willingness to sell their properties. On one hand, we have buyers seeing these low rates and wanting to take advantage, but on the other hand sellers reluctant to sell due to fears of COVID spread. This is actually helping our market. 


Let me give an example before I get tons of people quoting to me the most recent CBC article. 


Real Estate is simple supply and demand. Where is the supply coming from? Resale sellers, builders, courts, etc. If the pandemic has taught us one thing, it spreads through interactions (PSA – wear your mask and please physically distant). As a seller, I may have had my home for sale pre-pandemic, or at least planned to sell in 2020 but have since changed my mind. 


What does that do to supply?


Drops that one home off the market. That has been what has been causing the declines in inventory in the single-family market. Our saturated pool of inventory pre-pandemic has diluted and will continue to do so into the winter with our seasonality changes. 


This will increase the price. 


But what about demand. Believe me or not we have, on average each month (even the winter and cold months in 2019) an average of 1,388* buyers per month. In 2020, we are averaging up to the end of September 1,334* buyers each month. 


The demand remains the same. 


So when supply goes down, demand remains constant, we have….? (break out the UofC Economics 201 class notes) 


We have a price increase, which is consistent with what we have been seeing this year. Again ever so slightly.


But Aly, you aren’t seeing what happens when things go sideways after the subsidies and deferrals are done! 


On the contrary, let’s look at how things may play out.


This year, in Alberta so far, we have had only 0.52% of mortgages defaults**. In any crisis we have had in the past, including the two I mentioned above, we have never gone over 1%. 


Alberta also has an unemployment rate as of August 2020 of 11.8% compared to 7.2% last year***. Which have started to see declines since the pandemic had started (highest of 15.5% in May 2020).  


We are also the 2nd highest province for population growth behind British Columbia as of Q3 2020. 


We have fewer businesses declaring bankruptcy as well this quarter.


It is with all this information that we need to look at how things will progress into the next year. 


So we have the second-highest flow of population into our province, the youngest population in the country and an unemployment rate on the decline. 

The response to the pandemic has been considerably better in Alberta than the biggest provinces and our population is filled with such a wonderful culture of caring and compassion for our fellow person. 


If we continue our pandemic guidelines, we are able to remain open and not have to consider downgrading the reopening, like what Ontario and Quebec are having to consider.


We just need to focus on supporting our local small business, allowing us to grow and help more in the recovery of our great province. 


As interest rates remain low, pricing is still very competitive to other big markets in Canada, our young population can achieve homeownership as their goal and not have to mortgage their future to do so. 


I believe we do have a bright path in the future and hopefully, the messages of optimism will resonate rather than doom and gloom of all kinds of industries crashing. 


Oh, and by the way, Tom Brady is still playing well, albeit he's one step closer to retirement by moving to Florida :P


Thank you for your time with this blog. I know they have been coming out a bit less since the pandemic hit. I was busy attempting to teach grade 1 (nothing can replace a teacher and that is where we need to see the most growth btw). But hopefully, I can get these going again and help to educate and inform. I hope you found some value here and if there is anything I can do to assist you with your real estate goals, please feel free to email me at ajanmohamed@cirrealty.ca It would be my pleasure to help where I can. 


Remember, it’s not just a house, it’s home. Let’s chat on how I can help you achieve your goals. 


-Aly



*Based on data pulled from the MLS.

**Based on the data pulled from the Canadian Bankers Association up to April 30, 2020

***From the Alberta Economic Dashboard

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