Yes, you read that headline right. No clickbait happening here.

But before we get into the numbers, I just wanted to start this post and say Thank You! Thank you for taking the time to visit these posts each month. I truly appreciate your time.

Also, since it’s the end of the year, I just wanted to wish you, your families, and all those you hold close a very happy holiday and if you are celebrating, a very Merry Christmas!

Now let’s get to these numbers.

ABSORPTION RATES FOR CALGARY – ALL RESIDENTIAL SEGMENTS

This month, as the headline mentioned, we saw a massive decline in sales activity of 17%. This change has contributed to our Absorption Rate (ABS Rate) to drop below 60% to 57%.

If you recall from previous posts, anything between 40-60% is a balanced market. Below 40% is considered a buyer’s market, and above 60% is considered a seller’s market.

There is also one other side of the coin contributing to the decline in activity.

The number of listings available.

In November, the number of listings available to the market on the MLS declined by 7%. Ideally, this decline would make listings scarcer to the market and drive-up pricing. However, when the demand is shrinking faster than listings, we see a continued slowing of the market.

November’s ABS Rate of 57% marks the third straight month of declines in activity in our market.

But this story is one we have seen before but with a little twist!

In 2022 we saw this same decline from highs that were only superseded this year. The highest point in 2022 for our ABS Rate was 88%, while in May of this year we hit 91%. What came right after that high in 2022 was 4 major declines in activity as we worked through the summer months.

The same has now happened twice this year where we saw two declines after our high of 91% in May and a second peak occurring in August.

But even with this volatility in the market throughout the year, as you can see from the chart above, we seem to converge to a balanced market by the end of the year for the past three years.

And this is what we like to call the seasonality of the market.

The winter months slow everything down in Calgary and appetites for spending on homes now shift to other items like the holidays, etc. Also, most sellers are not open to having their homes for sale during the holidays to stop any interruptions with time with their families.

This is understandable. But if you are thinking of selling in the new year, contact me or shoot me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca and let's chat now, I can show you why you might want to reconsider December rather than March.  

My point with going into all this is we are not out of the hot market yet. If anything, November and December months in previous years have shown us that that lull for the holidays dissipates once the holidays are done.

With rates already on the decline (contact me again to learn more or email me at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca) and the forecasts of the prime rate dropping in April or May of next year, we can only expect the market to pick up.

I saw this with another set of stats I’d like to share below.

MEDIAN PRICES BY SEGMENT – CALGARY

November has seen pricing remain stagnant for yet another month as the trend for the market just treading water continues. Since July of this year, we have not seen major declines in the prices throughout the segments.

We see fluctuations here and there, but no real trend that shows our market is picking up or slowing down.

We do however see how the buyer’s avatar has been changing each month.

At the start of the year we saw single-family detached and semi-detached homes spike. Then when they capped out, we saw townhomes and apartments do the same.

As buyers are priced out of one market, they shift to more affordable markets.

However, this month, we have seen a significant drop in townhome prices (5%). While during the same month, we saw a substantial jump in semi-detached home prices (up 8%).

This little shift speaks to the affordability of today’s buyer. There is a significant price difference between the two segments. Therefore, for a buyer to become more active in the attached market shows that the recent fixed rate declines are giving these buyers more room to breathe with their purchasing power.

Lower rates lead to further each dollar going to the purchase price of the home.

This is also a very good precursor to how things may play out with the spring market if the prime rates drop.

Fixed-rate declines only affect new home mortgages. When the prime rate drops, that is the main event. Things like LOCs, car loans, mortgages, business loans, etc. are all affected. A decline in this rate will lead to much more cash available to consumers.

So what can we expect going into December and the year, I’ll break it down below.

THE BREAKDOWN

With the market prices remaining consistent while the activity is dropping, we are kind of in a one-in, one-out market right now.

The right buyer is coming along, is pre-approved and the home they find is listed well the sellers are reasonable with their asking and a transaction is done.

Most buyers fear the rate conversation and so are sellers now that the conversation of renewals is in the media circuit.

If there has been anything that we have seen over the last five years is that this market is resilient. Everyone needs housing and our city is growing at a pace that hasn’t happened in decades.

We will continue to see a slower market in December with the focus now on holiday shopping and time with family. However, come the new year, I believe history will repeat itself and we will see a spark once again.

To get ahead of that next curve, there are several things you can do now to position yourself to ensure you are ready for it. Or if you can, take advantage now since prices are still at their peaks without the mad dash of a super activity market.

If you want to have a consultation call or a meeting with me to discuss your options, my calendar can be found by clicking here.

I’d love to assist where I can.

Thank you again for your time as always, I truly appreciate it and I hope we can connect, and I can help you with any of your real estate or mortgage needs. If you have any friends or family who would like to join this newsletter, just share the link below and they can sign up.

Link to newsletter

Take care, happy holidays, and have a wonderful new year!

Aly

My update is a bit late, and I’m truly sorry for the delay. 

But after all the market headlines like the one above from our Calgary Real Estate Board and all the media outlets celebrating the record of sales in our city, I think it is a bit out there to completely gloss over what is really happening in our market amidst the higher rates, inventory levels, and overall sentiment we as realtors are seeing our market currently.

It’s one thing to see the numbers, it’s completely another thing to see what is happening with buyers and sellers in our market currently. 

So even though this update is late, I hope you still find some great value and possibly a different insight into what is happening in our market.

THE STATS

Those of you who have been using this update as a resource know that I have been tracking the absorption rates since 2019. The graph above will show you the true picture of how our real estate market has been doing comparing the market last year to this year as well as previous years.

And there are a few takeaways I’d like to point out before we start going through the numbers.

1. Seasonality is real and has been evident in each year since I have been keeping track of the market

2. In 2023, we are seeing elevated numbers, but this is the second drop in activity we have seen in the market this year.

In the month of September, we generally see a drop in activity. Although not as significant in previous years as 2023, we see a slight adjustment for people who are settling into their routines, back to work and school, and their focus is not on buying and selling a home.

This year, this adjustment was exaggerated with the significant increase in the 5-year bond market which leads the 2-year fixed mortgage interest rate.

In September, we saw the absorption rate drop by 9% to 69%. A balanced market in real estate is usually between 40 and 60%.

This decline is attributed to a drop, yes a drop in sales, of 10% from the previous month. While this drop in sales had occurred, we had an increase in inventory of listings increase by 1%.

Year over year, our inventory has declined by 355 while our sales have increased by 22%.

When we look at the median prices, we see an interesting trend over the last quarter.

Month over month, pricing across the segments had an average change of an increase of 1%. Townhomes showed a decline in prices while duplexes showed the highest gain of 2%.

We are higher from this same month last year by an average of 18% and for the year higher by an average across all segments of 11%

In the next section, we will break down these numbers and look at what the real sentiment has been in our market over the last month.

THE BREAKDOWN

If we revisit the absorption rate analysis we have a decrease in demand and an increase in supply. My Intro to Economics class at the UofC two decades ago tells me that that will drive prices to be suppressed.

Which is what we have been seeing in our median prices above.

When the articles that have been released blast the headline of record sales for the month, it’s a bit misleading because it gives the impression that our market is pushing forward without any issues.

Higher rates lately have caused a lot of slowdowns in the market.

Personally, I have had buyers lose their purchasing power to a point where they cannot buy anymore because their qualifying rate is way too high for them to purchase a home that they want.  

I’ve also had sellers second guess their sales in today’s market because they are worried about the carrying cost of the next home with the higher rates they are now exposed to.

Not to mention, there are those who are worried about the renewal cost of their home down the road who have added to the inventory levels just out of fear of not making their mortgage payments at renewal because they are in variable-rate mortgages.

The prices in Calgary have stayed somewhat consistent over the last quarter of the year across almost all segments. Which, if the headlines were true, would not be the case and prices should be skyrocketing.

Our market is also now seeing many listings have price adjustments down to adjust for the higher cost of rates that buyers are subjected to.

If a buyer can only afford so much in a market, they are forced to wait until that property becomes available. A seller, not wanting to sell, but in need to sell, will have to adjust their pricing to allow for that buyer to have the ability to buy.

If drastic changes like a lower BOC announcement or an increase in federal programs to allow for significantly more development occur, our market could see a shift. But until then, we are very close to our new balance of market.

The current prices, amount of inventory and number of buyers are close to our new balance of a market.

THANK YOU

I hope you found this update useful. I try and value where I can and hopefully this slightly different perspective can give you another lens to see our market.

If you are in the market to buy, or even just have questions about the process or mortgages, I’d love to connect. Please feel free to give me a call or send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca

And if you are considering to sell, let me work to give you a market report about your home to start. Its quick and no trouble for me at all. I actually tell clients I enjoy doing the evaluations because it helps me get better with my pricing. Please feel free to shoot me a note or fill in the form with your property details by clicking here.

Thanks again and I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your families. Take care,

Aly

When we look at the Calgary market lately, the last thing anyone would expect are price declines. But, funny enough, we have had a few segments start to show some cracks in their pricing due to the higher interest rates and the summer months. 

In this breakdown we look at these particular segments and how price declines can occur in a market that saw sales increase 3% while new listings drop 6%. 

Let’s get to the details!

The Stats

The Absorption Rate - All Calgary Residential Segments

In the month of August, we saw new listings drop by 6% to 3,454 while the number of sales increase by 3% to 2,736. This activity drove our absorption rate back up to 79%. 

This means that nearly 8 of 10 homes that are listing on the market today across all segments are selling. 

Compared to this same month last year, the number of active listings has dropped 48% while the number sales has increased by 22%

This 5% increase in the absorption rate month over month is not uncommon as we have seen in previous years where a tiny increase usually happens around August. If this trend continues, we should see another drop in activity in September before an increase in the later months of the year. 

This is not new information. Our market has been hot. But where the interesting story lies is how this hot market has been sustaining and how the different segments are reacting to the changes in our market conditions and seasonality. 

The Median Price By Segment - Calgary

These segments present a picture of the market still increasing as the months progress, but as you can see in the chart above, two big segments of our market have seen price declines month over month. 

The single-family detached and attached (semi-detached) segments both saw decreases in their prices to bring them to levels closer to March of this year. 

While these two segments have shown a little crack in their prices, townhomes and apartments continue to keep the market as a whole strong. 

While the market has shown some mixed signals so far, we will breakdown the rationale behind the drop in some segments as well as the slight increase in market in our breakdown below. 

The Breakdown

As we have seen this past month, detached and semi-detached homes have seen drops in their pricing while townhomes and apartments have seen a increase. This is understandable once we start to look at a few different factors contributing to these increases.

Rent Increases

In Calgary, rents for 2-bedroom units have ballooned to over 2,300/month, which is only $200 less than owning a 2-bedroom condo apartment with 5% down and a condo fee of $600/month. 

As more people to move to Calgary, rental vacancies are low leaving more and more people to purchasing an apartment (or a townhome if they have a family). This increase in demand has activated our condo market to become more in demand.

Interest Rates and Affordability

Lest we forget the overarching reason for our real estate market being in such a crazy phase. Higher interest rates continue to eat into the purchasing power of potential home owners leading them to afford less and continue to look at more affordable housing options for their home. 

As the rates continue to stay high, we will continue to see this demand of more affordable housing continue until which time that even these segments will be priced too higher for a buyer. 

But we cannot forget that the BOC cannot keep rates high for long. And when a small decline in the rate occurs, this will also lead to more demand as buyer’s purchasing power increases and their appetite to take advantage of the lower rate market will increase. 

This might change the way the pricing increases go. A lower interest rate will increase affordability for a buyer leading them to start looking the other way on the spectrum towards detached and semi-detached homes. 

The market will continue to run at this pace until something significant comes along to change it. This can either come, and most probably from, the BOC next rate announcement in September or a significant change in policy or production speeds for new housing development (which is not likely). 

Forecast

September will be a little bit of drop in the market if seasonality gives us any clue. People are getting back into their routines, school has started, and the focus is no longer into getting the home, but starting to live it in with the family. This might be a great time for a buyer to take advantage of the lack of competition. 

Once that is complete, we should continue to see increases in the demand again as those that would like to move before the holidays will start to be come active. 

My favourite time to list a home is actually December because of lack of sellers during that time. Buyers will continue to look, but most sellers don’t want to inconvenience their holidays. 

If you are currently in the market, the apartment and townhomes market might not be where you want to be looking right now. I would start to focus in on the detached and semi-detached homes to see if you can find some savings. 

And for sellers, if you have a property in the townhome or apartment segments, this when you will get your maximum return. Year over year this same month apartments are up 22%. Definitely a great return on your investment. 

Thank You

As always, thank you for time and checking out this update and market breakdown. I hope you found it useful. If you’d like to set some time aside with me to chat about your questions or needs in the market, please feel free to click here to access my calendar directly. 

I have some great resources if you are looking to buy, sell, or invest. Set up a time with me above and lets talk about how I can help you achieve your real estate goals. 

Thanks - Aly

Moving can be challenging. You are unsure of where to start, and how to tackle the move, not to mention you don't want to forget any major steps. 

I totally appreciate this mindset and it is the main reason I wanted to put this blog together for you to refer to. In it, I will have a few items that will make your move so much easier as well as a few service providers that you can utilize to help you along the way.