Yes, you read that headline right. No clickbait happening here.
But before we get into the numbers, I just wanted to start this post and say Thank You! Thank you for taking the time to visit these posts each month. I truly appreciate your time.
Also, since it’s the end of the year, I just wanted to wish you, your families, and all those you hold close a very happy holiday and if you are celebrating, a very Merry Christmas!
Now let’s get to these numbers.
ABSORPTION RATES FOR CALGARY – ALL RESIDENTIAL SEGMENTS
This month, as the headline mentioned, we saw a massive decline in sales activity of 17%. This change has contributed to our Absorption Rate (ABS Rate) to drop below 60% to 57%.
If you recall from previous posts, anything between 40-60% is a balanced market. Below 40% is considered a buyer’s market, and above 60% is considered a seller’s market.
There is also one other side of the coin contributing to the decline in activity.
The number of listings available.
In November, the number of listings available to the market on the MLS declined by 7%. Ideally, this decline would make listings scarcer to the market and drive-up pricing. However, when the demand is shrinking faster than listings, we see a continued slowing of the market.
November’s ABS Rate of 57% marks the third straight month of declines in activity in our market.
But this story is one we have seen before but with a little twist!
In 2022 we saw this same decline from highs that were only superseded this year. The highest point in 2022 for our ABS Rate was 88%, while in May of this year we hit 91%. What came right after that high in 2022 was 4 major declines in activity as we worked through the summer months.
The same has now happened twice this year where we saw two declines after our high of 91% in May and a second peak occurring in August.
But even with this volatility in the market throughout the year, as you can see from the chart above, we seem to converge to a balanced market by the end of the year for the past three years.
And this is what we like to call the seasonality of the market.
The winter months slow everything down in Calgary and appetites for spending on homes now shift to other items like the holidays, etc. Also, most sellers are not open to having their homes for sale during the holidays to stop any interruptions with time with their families.
This is understandable. But if you are thinking of selling in the new year, contact me or shoot me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org and let's chat now, I can show you why you might want to reconsider December rather than March.
My point with going into all this is we are not out of the hot market yet. If anything, November and December months in previous years have shown us that that lull for the holidays dissipates once the holidays are done.
With rates already on the decline (contact me again to learn more or email me at email@example.com) and the forecasts of the prime rate dropping in April or May of next year, we can only expect the market to pick up.
I saw this with another set of stats I’d like to share below.
MEDIAN PRICES BY SEGMENT – CALGARY
November has seen pricing remain stagnant for yet another month as the trend for the market just treading water continues. Since July of this year, we have not seen major declines in the prices throughout the segments.
We see fluctuations here and there, but no real trend that shows our market is picking up or slowing down.
We do however see how the buyer’s avatar has been changing each month.
At the start of the year we saw single-family detached and semi-detached homes spike. Then when they capped out, we saw townhomes and apartments do the same.
As buyers are priced out of one market, they shift to more affordable markets.
However, this month, we have seen a significant drop in townhome prices (5%). While during the same month, we saw a substantial jump in semi-detached home prices (up 8%).
This little shift speaks to the affordability of today’s buyer. There is a significant price difference between the two segments. Therefore, for a buyer to become more active in the attached market shows that the recent fixed rate declines are giving these buyers more room to breathe with their purchasing power.
Lower rates lead to further each dollar going to the purchase price of the home.
This is also a very good precursor to how things may play out with the spring market if the prime rates drop.
Fixed-rate declines only affect new home mortgages. When the prime rate drops, that is the main event. Things like LOCs, car loans, mortgages, business loans, etc. are all affected. A decline in this rate will lead to much more cash available to consumers.
So what can we expect going into December and the year, I’ll break it down below.
With the market prices remaining consistent while the activity is dropping, we are kind of in a one-in, one-out market right now.
The right buyer is coming along, is pre-approved and the home they find is listed well the sellers are reasonable with their asking and a transaction is done.
Most buyers fear the rate conversation and so are sellers now that the conversation of renewals is in the media circuit.
If there has been anything that we have seen over the last five years is that this market is resilient. Everyone needs housing and our city is growing at a pace that hasn’t happened in decades.
We will continue to see a slower market in December with the focus now on holiday shopping and time with family. However, come the new year, I believe history will repeat itself and we will see a spark once again.
To get ahead of that next curve, there are several things you can do now to position yourself to ensure you are ready for it. Or if you can, take advantage now since prices are still at their peaks without the mad dash of a super activity market.
If you want to have a consultation call or a meeting with me to discuss your options, my calendar can be found by clicking here.
I’d love to assist where I can.
Thank you again for your time as always, I truly appreciate it and I hope we can connect, and I can help you with any of your real estate or mortgage needs. If you have any friends or family who would like to join this newsletter, just share the link below and they can sign up.
Take care, happy holidays, and have a wonderful new year!