March 2023 Calgary Real Estate Report

The real estate market is constantly evolving and adjusting to external forces that can impact buyers and sellers with the purchase or sale of properties. 

This past month, the failure of a major US bank might have spurred our real estate market to recuperate to levels that we had only seen during the pandemic. 

A time when rates were low.

In this breakdown, we look at the current market conditions for the first month of the spring market and how this major bank failure has caused ripple effects to the housing industry in Calgary. 

Let's dive right in.

Aggregated Market Stats

In March we saw the absorption rate (ABS) soar to 11% from the previous month's 71%. This 11% increase is attributed to an increase of 18% in listings versus an increase in sales of 39%. 

With the number of sales outpacing listings 2 to 1, the inventory in Calgary continues to see declines. 

Compared to last year at this same time, our ABS rate was 88%. Listings have declined year over year at this time of 36% while sales are down 68%. 

In 2021, at this time our ABS rate was 51%

When the ABS rate is over 40% it is considered a strong seller's market. 

Median Prices By Segment

The prices in the great Calgary area show to share the same tale as the ABS rates. 

Prices increased across all segments between 2-5%. Year over year, the greatest increase has been seen in the attached segment. 

This increase in the attached segment can be attributed to affordability for buyers as they become more and more squeezed out of the single-family detached homes as prices continue to rise. 

Apartments also exhibited increases year over year with the increased cost of renting vs. owning. This segment is also very appealing to investors that are noticing higher rates of returns from rentals as vacancy rates continue to decline. 

These numbers show a great story of how our real estate market has been progressing this year. However, as we all know, the spring market is a beast in itself. Below we look at some of these factors and how they can impact April and May.

The Breakdown

Sales are up. The number of listings is down. When this normally happens, we have prices increase. 

The simplicity of the above statement might be a bit of a stretch...but is it really?

If you hear most economists or bank representatives, they all predicted a significant shift in the market while the interest rates rose each quarter in the last couple of years. 

Before the failure of Silicon Bank in the US, all rates were extremely high. The prime rate is still around 6.7% at the time of this publication. 

But prices are still the highest they have been. Along with other expenses like food and gas. 

So where is the disconnect here?

Housing prices are not the direct inverse of interest rates. If that were the case, when rates were super low through 2009-2014, our real estate market should have soared with pricing. 

That didn't happen. And neither are the declining prices now with the higher rates. 

For this relationship of prices to interest rates to be directly related, you'd have to assume that:

1.     Everyone is getting a mortgage that is purchasing a property.

2.     They are all in long-term mortgages

But what happens when those with cash to invest do so without a mortgage and those that have a mortgage obtain a variable rate mortgage and get to ride the highs and lows of the benchmark rate?

Not to mention they have a 3-month penalty to break their mortgage and refinance it with a lower rate and higher discount later on. 

This is where the direct relationship of price to interest rates falls apart. 

The failure of this US Bank has shown that the economy, even one as strong as the US market, cannot continue to accommodate higher interest rates. 

Our economy is significantly smaller and is more exposed to failures like this. 

That is why the 5-year bond yield (which drives the fixed mortgage rates) fell off a cliff once this bank failed. Below is an illustration:

Now, what happens when the cost of borrowing declines?

More money is available to buyers to put towards their homes rather than service debt, leading to the ability to pay more for their purchase. 

Which is music to sellers' ears allowing them to continue the trend of higher prices. 

The spring is generally when we see both higher inventory numbers and higher prices. However, if the inventory continues to be outpaced by sales, we can continue to expect higher pricing and an increase in the pool of buyers with more money to spend with less selection. 

Thank You

Thank you for taking the time to check out this breakdown and market update. As always if you have questions, I'd love to answer them. Please feel free to reach out to my office at (587) 871-5532 or shoot me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca. 

If you are considering a sale right now, I'd love to chat. Please feel free to reach out any way above or connect with me on social media and we can go from there. 

Take care and have a great day ahead. 

It's not just a house. It's home. Let's chat about how I can help. 

- Aly

The month of December is special. it brings families together, which in today's world is so much more important. 

And its not that much different in real estate. When everyone takes the time off to enjoy the holidays, the market says, "well if everyone is doing it, why not me?" 

If you are interested to learn why that is, jump into this month's breakdown to learn why. 

AGGREGATED ABSORPTION RATE - CALGARY

In the month of December, the number of sales (buyer activity) dropped month over month to 1,212 or a 26% drop. At the same time, the number of active listings dropped to 2,402 listings or a drop of 28%.

See what I mean?

When the number of active listings is in lockstep with the buyer's activity, there is no change to the market activity. 

And the market becomes stagnant. 

The evidence for this lies in the absorption rate of the number of listings that are sold each month. In December, the rate of absorption was 50%, which is unchanged from the previous month, and only 5% higher than in October. 

As this type of market continues, we will continue to see the absorption rate remain the same. Where this becomes important is when we discuss price and where they are going with a market change like this.

MEDIAN PRICES PER SEGMENT - CALGARY

DETACHED

In the month of December, the median price for detached single-family homes increased by 2% to $570,000 from $561,000 the previous month.  

ATTACHED

Attached (or duplex or semi-detached) homes in Calgary saw their pricing rise 4% from the previous month and currently have a median price of $512,000.

TOWNHOMES

Condominium townhomes in Calgary saw a decline in median price from the previous month by 1% to $350,000. 

APARTMENTS

Apartments in Calgary saw an increase month over month of 3% to $258,500. 

THE BREAKDOWN

The number of listings available to buyers declined in December due to continued strain on the interest rates that were imposed in the month and the season of the market. 

Further interest rates are expected in early 2023 with the first BOC meeting in January. However, the verbiage that has now been shared seems to show that the increases are easing and could potentially stop. 

If this were the case, we can expect pricing to start increasing as more and more buyers will enter a market where supply is still very constrained. 

In addition to the rate factors, we continue to see the seasonality of the market continue to affect how the market changes. With more people enjoying the holidays, we saw fewer homes for sale and fewer buyers focused on buying. This will continue to change as the colder months subside and the spring market approaches. 

Sellers that are savvy and would like to get ahead of the spring market should seriously consider selling now or in February to have their home in front of today's buyers. When the spring market comes, more and more competition will dilute their home in the market with all the others (email me at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca to chat about how we can position you to get the most exposure now)

Heading into 2023 we can further expect a limited affect on pricing due to the lack of activity in the market. As external factors like interest rates and the weather start to change, we can expect an uptick in the spring market activity and hopefully return to normal market trends for the year. 

THANK YOU

Thank you for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope you found it helpful and that it helped to answer any questions you have. if you'd like to learn more about my services, and the listings we have, or just to connect with me, please feel free to visit all my channels by clicking here.

Thank you again and have an amazing day and year ahead!

Aly

The Calgary real estate market is a very resilient market, to say the least. 

In the almost 7 years I have had the opportunity to work in this industry we have seen pricing drop with the decline of oil prices, the surge of pricing due to foreign and out-of-province purchases, and now with higher interest rates, we haven't seen the massive spike or decline that most would have expected. 

In fact, the last two months have shown pricing to start to return to levels earlier this year. 

What that is, is what we will be looking at today in this breakdown. 

But first, let's have a quick look at the stats that we have for November. 

Calgary Aggregated Absorption Rates

In the month of November, we saw the absorption rate for all housing segments in Calgary surge back up to 50%, which is a 5% increase month-over-month and brings us back in line with rates we were seeing in May and June of this year. 

However, even though 1 in every 2 homes for sale currently is sold, the number of transactions has significantly reduced. 

In April of this year, we had seen the number of listings hover around 5,000 while the number of sales was around 3,400. Today, these numbers have declined to 3,316 active listings and 1,651 sales. 

This decline in activity has definitely been attributed to the higher interest rates. Someone back in May or April of this year could very well be priced out of homes now due to the higher interest rates (and higher qualifying rates) they would be exposed to today. 

Month-over-month, we have seen the number of listings decline by 19% while the number of homes sold decline by 11%. This outpacing of declines in listings compared to sales is driving our market to continue to maintain relatively strong pricing. 

Compared to last year, the number of listings has declined by 27% while the number of sales declined by 28%, leaving us at virtually the same absorption rate we had at the same time last year. 

Calgary Median Pricing Per Segment

This month we saw the single-family segment decline in pricing with a 4% drop month-over-month to $560,500. This is the lowest median price for single-family homes this year, after a rally of pricing the previous month. 

The attached (semi-detached) segment saw pricing increase by 5% to $493,000 from the previous months. The last time pricing for this segment was that high was back in April and May of this year. 

The townhome segment also saw strong gains in pricing, higher by 5% month over month to $352,500.

Apartments saw no change month-over-month and remain at a median price of $250,000. 

The Breakdown - Why Pricing is Maintain?

When you read about higher interest rates, what is your first thought about who it impacts?

You could be thinking that it is impacting new buyers that want to enter the market since rents have increased significantly. 

And if this is your first thought, you wouldn't be wrong. But it doesn't explain the big picture. 

When a higher interest rate is announced, sellers and homeowners are the ones that are impacted the most. They don't have the luxury of deciding to not enter the real estate market and continue to rent when a new rate hike is announced. 

They are the ones that need to adjust their budgets to accommodate higher rates. Or need to decide if they cannot continue to afford their home, should they consider a sale. 

Thankfully the homeowners of today that would have recently bought their homes in the last 4 years were qualified at rates much higher than what they received. And can weather the storm at higher rates. 

But in doing this, they are also not putting their homes up for sale as most buyers would like. 

The pricing we have in Calgary is not solely driven by interest rates. People tend to forget that homes, unlike stocks and bonds, are not readily traded all the time. There aren't corporations and stakeholders in most home sales. 

So when a seller is spooked about higher interest rates, they get spooked out of the market. They will decide that selling my home now, although being a hot commodity to the market, need to worry about potentially higher rates and a bigger mortgage than what I have now. 

And this sentiment is what is driving our active number of listings to continue to decline each month since our peak in June. Sellers are worried about the uncertainty of the market and for the most part are worried that if they sell, there is nothing for them to buy. 

When the number of listings drops, buyers have less selection, leading them to bid on homes that are available, which in turn increases pricing. 

With more uncertainty from higher rates, legislation, and not knowing where they can go, sellers are not entering the market as fast as the demand would like, leading to buyers paying higher prices and higher interest rates. 

Now you might point out and say that the single-family segment has seen a drop in pricing, as we mentioned above. That is 100% correct. But if you ask any Calgarian, if they feel a single-family home median price should be $560,500, you would get a unanimous response of it still being very high for our city. 

As long as our inventory levels are this low, we will continue to see pricing remain strong. And so far this year we have followed the same seasonal trend of 2021, which means the market will continue to see higher prices as absorption rates increase and the level of listings decline into the holidays. 

Thank You!

As always, thank you so much for taking the time to review this breakdown. I hope it was useful and provided you with some insight into where things are heading as we enter 2023. 

if you'd like to connect, feel free to send me an email at aly@calgaryareahomes.ca or send me a message with the number below. 

Have a wonderful holiday and I hope 2023 brings with it plenty of joy and happiness to you and your loved ones!