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😴 Don’t Sleep Through These Price Declines!

When we look at the Calgary market lately, the last thing anyone would expect are price declines. But, funny enough, we have had a few segments start to show some cracks in their pricing due to the higher interest rates and the summer months. 

In this breakdown we look at these particular segments and how price declines can occur in a market that saw sales increase 3% while new listings drop 6%. 

Let’s get to the details!

The Stats

The Absorption Rate - All Calgary Residential Segments

In the month of August, we saw new listings drop by 6% to 3,454 while the number of sales increase by 3% to 2,736. This activity drove our absorption rate back up to 79%. 

This means that nearly 8 of 10 homes that are listing on the market today across all segments are selling. 

Compared to this same month last year, the number of active listings has dropped 48% while the number sales has increased by 22%

This 5% increase in the absorption rate month over month is not uncommon as we have seen in previous years where a tiny increase usually happens around August. If this trend continues, we should see another drop in activity in September before an increase in the later months of the year. 

This is not new information. Our market has been hot. But where the interesting story lies is how this hot market has been sustaining and how the different segments are reacting to the changes in our market conditions and seasonality. 

The Median Price By Segment - Calgary

These segments present a picture of the market still increasing as the months progress, but as you can see in the chart above, two big segments of our market have seen price declines month over month. 

The single-family detached and attached (semi-detached) segments both saw decreases in their prices to bring them to levels closer to March of this year. 

While these two segments have shown a little crack in their prices, townhomes and apartments continue to keep the market as a whole strong. 

While the market has shown some mixed signals so far, we will breakdown the rationale behind the drop in some segments as well as the slight increase in market in our breakdown below. 

The Breakdown

As we have seen this past month, detached and semi-detached homes have seen drops in their pricing while townhomes and apartments have seen a increase. This is understandable once we start to look at a few different factors contributing to these increases.

Rent Increases

In Calgary, rents for 2-bedroom units have ballooned to over 2,300/month, which is only $200 less than owning a 2-bedroom condo apartment with 5% down and a condo fee of $600/month. 

As more people to move to Calgary, rental vacancies are low leaving more and more people to purchasing an apartment (or a townhome if they have a family). This increase in demand has activated our condo market to become more in demand.

Interest Rates and Affordability

Lest we forget the overarching reason for our real estate market being in such a crazy phase. Higher interest rates continue to eat into the purchasing power of potential home owners leading them to afford less and continue to look at more affordable housing options for their home. 

As the rates continue to stay high, we will continue to see this demand of more affordable housing continue until which time that even these segments will be priced too higher for a buyer. 

But we cannot forget that the BOC cannot keep rates high for long. And when a small decline in the rate occurs, this will also lead to more demand as buyer’s purchasing power increases and their appetite to take advantage of the lower rate market will increase. 

This might change the way the pricing increases go. A lower interest rate will increase affordability for a buyer leading them to start looking the other way on the spectrum towards detached and semi-detached homes. 

The market will continue to run at this pace until something significant comes along to change it. This can either come, and most probably from, the BOC next rate announcement in September or a significant change in policy or production speeds for new housing development (which is not likely). 

Forecast

September will be a little bit of drop in the market if seasonality gives us any clue. People are getting back into their routines, school has started, and the focus is no longer into getting the home, but starting to live it in with the family. This might be a great time for a buyer to take advantage of the lack of competition. 

Once that is complete, we should continue to see increases in the demand again as those that would like to move before the holidays will start to be come active. 

My favourite time to list a home is actually December because of lack of sellers during that time. Buyers will continue to look, but most sellers don’t want to inconvenience their holidays. 

If you are currently in the market, the apartment and townhomes market might not be where you want to be looking right now. I would start to focus in on the detached and semi-detached homes to see if you can find some savings. 

And for sellers, if you have a property in the townhome or apartment segments, this when you will get your maximum return. Year over year this same month apartments are up 22%. Definitely a great return on your investment. 

Thank You

As always, thank you for time and checking out this update and market breakdown. I hope you found it useful. If you’d like to set some time aside with me to chat about your questions or needs in the market, please feel free to click here to access my calendar directly. 

I have some great resources if you are looking to buy, sell, or invest. Set up a time with me above and lets talk about how I can help you achieve your real estate goals. 

Thanks - Aly

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Spring cleaning? Don't forget to give your finances a polish.
      
Aly Janmohamed
Mortgage Associate
403.354.5664
Invis News April 2023
Spring cleaning? Don’t forget to give your finances a polish.

As the weather gets warmer and spring blooms around us, it's the perfect time to refresh your finances and give them a good spring cleaning. As your trusted mortgage professional, I am here to help you get started with some tips and insights on how you can get your finances in order and prepare for a brighter financial future.

REVIEW YOUR CREDIT REPORT
The best possible starting point for any review of your finances. Your credit report is a crucial component of your financial health, and it's essential that you check to make sure it’s accurate and up to date. You can obtain a free credit report from each of the major credit reporting agencies once a year, and you can also use a variety of services to get a rough update as well, so take advantage of this opportunity to review your report and ensure everything is correct.

CONSOLIDATE HIGH-INTEREST DEBT
While mortgage rates have gone up over the last year, they’re still considerably lower than other high-interest forms of debt, such as credit cards for example. Consolidating multiple high-interest debts into a single lower-interest mortgage can help you save money on interest and simplify your payments. By consolidating your debts, you can streamline your finances, reduce your overall payments, and focus on paying off your debt more quickly.

REVIEW YOUR SUBSCRIPTIONS AND CANCEL UNNECESSARY ONES
Many of us subscribe to various services, such as streaming platforms, subscription boxes, or gym memberships, and over time, we stop using them or no longer need them. Review your subscriptions and cancel any that you no longer use to free up some extra cash each month.

CREATE A BUDGET AND MANAGE YOUR EXPENSES
With higher interest rates affecting those with variable mortgages, creating a new and updated family budget is crucial to your finances in 2023. If you have a mortgage renewal coming up, it’s a great time for us to touch base so you get an idea of what your new mortgage payments will be. Adjusting to these new costs and developing a new budget will help you identify ways that you can reduce your expenses, and more importantly can reduce the chance of going into debt, and then adding interest and repayment to your monthly costs.

BUILD AN EMERGENCY FUND
After doing the above steps, if you’re able to increase your cash flow, and reduce your expenses, building an emergency fund is crucial to helping cope with unexpected expenses and financial hardships. This can include job changes, medical emergencies, or even an unaccounted bill. Work towards building up a reserve of 6 months salary before starting to spend freely on things like expensive vacations or major non-essential purchases.

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is April 12, 2023 and most economists are predicting a rate hold. This presents a good opportunity to give your finances, budget, and spending a good spring clean. If you’re looking to find ways to create cash flow, and manage your expenses effectively, then it’s a great time to touch base. I’m here to help anytime.


Federal Budget 2023: Highlights for Homeowners/ Homebuyers

  • A two-year ban on non-resident, non-Canadians purchasing residential property is in effect to curb speculation and ensure houses are used as homes for Canadians.
  • The Tax-Free First Home Savings Account is here! This will allow first-time buyers to save up to $40,000 tax-free to buy their first home.
  • Profits from flipping properties held for less than 12 months are fully taxed as income.
  • The First-Time Home Buyers' Tax Credit has doubled to provide up to $1,500 in direct support to home buyers to offset closing costs.
  • The Multigenerational Home Renovation Tax Credit provides up to $7,500 in support for constructing a secondary suite for a senior or an adult with a disability.
  • GST/HST will be applied to all assignment sales of newly constructed or substantially renovated residential housing.
  • A top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit in December 2022 provided low-income renters with a $500 payment to help with the cost of housing.
Aly Janmohamed
Mortgage Associate
403.354.5664


Invis Inc. 420 - 2100 Derry Rd. W, Mississauga, ON L5N 0B3
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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.